A poll can describe opinions at a particular moment. It cannot guarantee an election result. Before sharing a Senate-race headline, open the poll's methodology and look for the interviewing dates, sponsor, sample size, question wording, and population surveyed.
Who was actually interviewed?
Adults, registered voters, and likely voters are different groups. A statewide poll also answers a different question from a national survey. Check whether the published number covers everyone interviewed or only a smaller group, such as respondents age 50 and older.
The American Association for Public Opinion Research warns that uncertainty can be much larger for small subgroups. The margin of sampling error printed beside the overall result may not describe the age group featured in a headline. If the subgroup size or uncertainty is missing, be cautious about treating a small difference as meaningful.
Compare like with like
When looking for change, compare surveys with similar populations and methods, and check whether their interviewing periods overlap. A different pollster's result is not automatically evidence that voters changed their minds overnight. Question wording and the choices offered also matter.
Keep polls separate from forecasts, campaign statements, and certified results. This page does not publish an unsupported ranking of Senate candidates among older voters. It gives you a way to assess the underlying evidence before deciding what a new survey actually says.
